What happened next when SPY jumped over 2%
Last week, SPY jump over 2% on Thursday
This was surprising for many as the market is already up a lot.
So, I wanted to see what happened the next day when SPY jumped over 2%.
Here are the results over the last 10 years.
The next day change after a 2% jump
| Next Day Change | Number of Occurrences |
|---|---|
| < 0 | 36 |
| > 0 | 25 |
| > 1 % | 13 |
| > 2 % | 3 |
| > 3 % | 1 |
This doesn’t tell us much, but it does give us a good indication of what is going on. Next, I’m planning to overlay other indicators to say if this is a trend or not.
The code is open and available here
Here is the list of all the days along with percent gains
Raw data
| Date | Gain(%) | NextDay(%) | RSI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-12-18 | 2.47 | -0.13 | 57.57 |
| 2015-08-26 | 3.84 | 2.47 | 34.11 |
| 2015-08-27 | 2.47 | 0.01 | 42.64 |
| 2015-09-08 | 2.51 | -1.34 | 45.26 |
| 2016-01-22 | 2.05 | -1.51 | 40.13 |
| 2016-01-29 | 2.44 | -0.04 | 49.08 |
| 2016-02-12 | 2.06 | 1.69 | 42.48 |
| 2016-03-01 | 2.35 | 0.45 | 60.43 |
| 2016-11-07 | 2.21 | 0.45 | 50.50 |
| 2018-03-26 | 2.74 | -1.70 | 42.09 |
| 2018-10-16 | 2.19 | 0.02 | 41.45 |
| 2018-11-07 | 2.14 | -0.18 | 56.33 |
| 2018-11-28 | 2.30 | -0.22 | 53.06 |
| 2018-12-26 | 5.05 | 0.77 | 36.36 |
| 2019-01-04 | 3.35 | 0.79 | 46.23 |
| 2019-06-04 | 2.17 | 0.87 | 44.83 |
| 2020-03-02 | 4.33 | -2.86 | 37.33 |
| 2020-03-04 | 4.20 | -3.32 | 44.12 |
| 2020-03-10 | 5.17 | -4.87 | 37.06 |
| 2020-03-13 | 8.55 | -10.94 | 36.93 |
| 2020-03-17 | 5.40 | -5.06 | 35.72 |
| 2020-03-24 | 9.06 | 1.50 | 38.47 |
| 2020-03-26 | 5.84 | -2.98 | 45.65 |
| 2020-03-30 | 3.25 | -1.49 | 46.45 |
| 2020-04-02 | 2.31 | -1.45 | 43.89 |
| 2020-04-06 | 6.72 | 0.10 | 49.57 |
| 2020-04-08 | 3.36 | 1.52 | 53.16 |
| 2020-04-14 | 2.95 | -2.12 | 56.78 |
| 2020-04-17 | 2.70 | -1.76 | 57.56 |
| 2020-04-22 | 2.22 | -0.01 | 53.26 |
| 2020-04-29 | 2.62 | -0.93 | 60.04 |
| 2020-05-18 | 3.05 | -1.03 | 59.25 |
| 2020-06-05 | 2.56 | 1.21 | 73.24 |
| 2020-11-04 | 2.23 | 1.95 | 55.24 |
| 2021-03-01 | 2.42 | -0.78 | 55.65 |
| 2021-12-07 | 2.07 | 0.26 | 57.37 |
| 2022-01-28 | 2.48 | 1.80 | 38.35 |
| 2022-02-25 | 2.21 | -0.26 | 45.85 |
| 2022-03-09 | 2.68 | -0.45 | 43.78 |
| 2022-03-15 | 2.20 | 2.22 | 45.28 |
| 2022-03-16 | 2.22 | 1.25 | 51.52 |
| 2022-04-28 | 2.53 | -3.70 | 43.22 |
| 2022-05-04 | 3.05 | -3.55 | 47.86 |
| 2022-05-13 | 2.39 | -0.41 | 39.08 |
| 2022-05-17 | 2.06 | -4.03 | 44.26 |
| 2022-05-27 | 2.45 | -0.56 | 53.85 |
| 2022-06-21 | 2.52 | -0.18 | 37.95 |
| 2022-06-24 | 3.18 | -0.38 | 48.44 |
| 2022-07-19 | 2.70 | 0.64 | 54.91 |
| 2022-07-27 | 2.60 | 1.25 | 59.39 |
| 2022-08-10 | 2.10 | 0.00 | 67.81 |
| 2022-10-03 | 2.64 | 3.10 | 37.65 |
| 2022-10-04 | 3.10 | -0.23 | 46.56 |
| 2022-10-13 | 2.64 | -2.28 | 43.07 |
| 2022-10-17 | 2.57 | 1.17 | 45.44 |
| 2022-10-21 | 2.43 | 1.22 | 51.16 |
| 2022-10-28 | 2.38 | -0.72 | 59.45 |
| 2022-11-10 | 5.50 | 0.97 | 60.27 |
| 2022-11-30 | 3.15 | -0.07 | 63.70 |
| 2023-01-06 | 2.29 | -0.06 | 51.31 |
| 2024-02-22 | 2.07 | 0.07 | 68.27 |